- Health and agriculture will be impacted most if Trump decides to completely pull out USAID programs from Africa, particularly Kenya.
- Other important sectors will be governance and civil societies, innovation and technology, education, SMEs, and finance.
- A 90-day pause ends in late April 2025.
- Kenya is reportedly losing an estimated Kshs 2 billion, or more, daily to corruption.
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Trump signed an executive order subjecting USAID to a 90-day pause or freeze on its operations and funding—pending review of whether it aligns with U.S. foreign policy under what was described as an “America First” agenda.
The move was part of a series of executive actions taken shortly after his inauguration into the office for the second term in late January 2025. The order was also part of a broader initiative to pause U.S. foreign assistance, including USAID programs, to address what Trump and his administration described as inefficiencies in foreign aid spending.
But what does this have to do with Kenya as one of the long-decade beneficiaries of the USAID? What ripple effect will this have in a country whose major critical sectors, such as health and education, have relied much on foreign assistance for long?
USAID pumps billions of American taxpayer dollars into Africa, supporting thousands of NGOs, governance, and other critical sectors deemed beneficial to the continent’s posterity—alleviating them from channeling huge resources to such sectors.
Is the United States legally obligated to provide USAID funding for assistance to Kenya or Africa as a whole? No, the U.S., just like any sovereign jurisdiction, has the discretion to decide how and where it allocates it’s foreign aid.
The US foreign aid assistance to Africa is often driven by strategic interests, including supporting health initiatives like PEPFAR, promoting democracy, countering terrorism, and fostering an economic environment that could as well benefit American businesses.
Pulling USAID out of Kenya will result in approximately 44,000 direct job losses, with an additional 350,000 jobs affected indirectly. The estimates reflect the broader economic impact the financial aid has had in Kenya.
Already, several hospitals and health institutions have sent USAID employees home since the suspension of its activities in Kenya.
The University of Nairobi, specifically the Faculty of Health Sciences, sent all USAID’s Fahari Ya Jamii (FYJ) project staff on a three-month unpaid leave starting February 1, 2025.
Kisii County sent over 500 medical workers on compulsory leave, affecting health programs in the region.
Similarly, the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital (MTRH), through AMPATH, which was fully funded by USAID, sent over 2,000 staff home effective immediately. AMPATH played key roles in the healthcare, including treatment, care, and sensitization efforts related to HIV in Uasin Gishu and the larger western region.
USAID pumps approximately USD 400 million in humanitarian aid annually; Kenya secured USD 359.2 million in humanitarian aid for 2024, with the U.S. government contributing USD 207 million of the total donations (58.8%)
Kenya receives approximately USD 1 billion in direct bilateral assistance from the U.S. government annually, primarily through USAID.
According to AidData’s 2020 report, U.S.-related contributions, including government, NGOs, private investments, etc, could be over 3 billion annually, which would translate to over USD 15 billion in five years if consistent (based on the current exchange rate)
Sectors that will be Impacted by USAID Withdrawal
Healthcare Sector
The health sector has been the most critical and the biggest beneficiary, gaining support for a wide range of programs such as the PEPPFAR (President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief). PEPFAR has been providing treatment, care, and prevention services for HIV/AIDS, including antiretroviral therapy, support for orphans and vulnerable children, and efforts to reduce mother-to-child transmission.
USAID has also been involved in programs aimed at supporting maternal and child health, including family planning, reducing maternal and infant mortality, and improving health services for mothers, newborns, children, and adolescents.
Initiatives such as reducing acute malnutrition in counties like Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, and Turkana through programs like the USAID Nawiri, which promotes multi-sectoral nutrition interventions, could be crippled.
The President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), in collaboration with the Kenyan government, to reduce malaria through prevention methods like the distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor spraying, and diagnosis and treatment improvement is also at risk.
USAID has also been working to strengthen Kenya’s National Tuberculosis and Lung Disease Program by enhancing diagnostics, increasing access to treatment, and tackling drug-resistant TB.
Additionally, the Kenyan health system has been benefitting from initiatives such as the Global Health Supply Program (GHSCP), which aims at ensuring the availability of high-quality health commodities; Kenya Health Partnerships for Quality Services (KHPQS), involved in local organizations in delivering health services across 34 counties; and Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH), supporting access to clean water and sanitation facilities.
USAID has also been involved in enhancing infectious disease surveillance and response through Global Health Security, aimed at strengthening Kenya’s capacity for detection and response to infectious disease threats through community-based and zoonotic disease surveillance.
Agricultural Sector
The agricultural industry is another sector at risk should the USAID pull out completely and the government fail to fill up the gap, as the aid has driven several initiatives in the country aimed at improving food security, enhancing agricultural practices, and supporting economic growth.
Agricultural projects such as the Feed the Future Kenya Crops and Dairy Market Systems (KCDMS) implemented from 2017 to 2022 by the RTI International aimed at increasing access to finance for agro-enterprise and smallholder farmers, promoting market-driven partnerships, and improving supply efficiency.
The Kenya Agricultural Value Chains Enterprise (KAVES), implemented from 2012 to 2017, aimed at supporting smallholder farmers, particularly in the dairy, maize, and horticulture sectors—improving economic stability and food security.
Through the Drip Program, USAID approved projects totaling US$2,480,000 to stimulate growth among Kenya’s SMEs in agriculture. Similarly, a $9.95 million investment to strengthen seed systems throughout Africa benefited the Center of Excellence for Seed Systems in Africa (CESSA).
The USAID program has also supported the Kenya Horticulture Competitiveness Project through the Good Neighbors Community Program to improve smallholder farmer’s access to high-quality seedlings.
Kenya Livestock Market Systems (KLMS) aims to improve the income of pastoralists in the country’s arid and semi-arid regions. Local Food Systems (LFS) is a five-year project that began in 2022 and aims to boost food production, support farmer organizations, and improve markets.
Other agricultural programs supported by the USAID included Resilience and Economic Growth in the Arid Lands-Accelerated Value Chain Development (REGAL-AG), aimed at supporting smallholder farmers in the arid areas to increase productivity and market access; the Kenya Investment Mechanism (KIM) to support SMEs through grants and facilitate private sector investment in agriculture.
Other Critical Sectors
USAID has also had fingerprints in the following sectors: education (from primary to tertiary levels, including vocational training), water and sanitation, and energy projects aimed at sustainable energy solutions.
Other sectors include microfinance and economic growth impacting employment in banking and finance, governance and civil society, including anti-corruption institutions, infrastructure, technology and innovation, supporting tech hubs, tech startups, and digital literacy.
Local businesses in Kenya that could be impacted by USAID’s withdrawal include small and medium enterprises (SMEs), retail and services, hotels and hospitality, consultancies and professional services, transport and logistics, agricultural supply chains, manufacturing, technology providers, and construction and real estate.
The former President said the USAID pullout is a Wake-up Call for Africa
Kenya’s former president, Uhuru Kenyatta’s speech regarding the USAID withdrawal and Africa’s self-reliance took the internet by storm, gaining praises from across the world. He described Trump’s aid cut as “a wake-up call for Africa.”
Speaking during the East Africa Regional Global Health Security Summit in Mombasa on January 29, 2025, Kenyatta called on all African leaders to utilize their resources to fund critical programs.
“This is a wake-up call for us to reduce our over-reliance on foreign assistance and utilize our local resources to fund critical programs, especially in health services,” former President Uhuru Kenyatta stated.
The unexpected decision by the U.S. president, Trump, and his administration to cut aid has left many unprepared African nations gobmascked, particularly Kenya, but the government, through the Ministry of Health, said it is working to fill up the work.
During President Uhuru’s tenure, Kenya was reportedly losing an estimated Kshs 2 billion daily or more to corruption alone. The former president has said Africa has enough resources to finance the needs of the people and develop without reliance on foreign aid.
